Opinion: How Will the F1 2021 Grid Shape Up?

Not even a single race has yet been run in the 2020 FIA Formula 1 World Championship season, but already the silly season for the 2021 grid has begun, with shock announcements from Ferrari causing a tidal wave of changes throughout the field. Some of these have already been resolved, but there are still a lot of seats yet to be confirmed. Let’s take a look at how the F1 2021 grid could look:

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport

2020 drivers:

Lewis Hamilton
Valtteri Bottas

2021 confirmed drivers:

Drivers in contention for a drive in 2021:

Lewis Hamilton
Valtteri Bottas
George Russell
Sebastian Vettel
Esteban Ocon

Hamilton wins the 2014 F1 title

Mercedes is the only top team who are yet to confirm either of their drivers for the 2021 season. There has been various rumours about Mercedes’ future in F1, with talks of team boss Toto Wolff jumping ship to Aston Martin fueling those rumours. Assuming nothing changes with the Mercedes’ team, you would expect Hamilton to resign whether he wins his 7th F1 title this year or not. The second seat is much more up for grabs.

Bottas is very much under pressure to perform in 2020, and if he has another season like his 2017, 18 and 19 seasons, it is quite likely he will not be retained. Bottas came out recently saying he has been told by Mercedes that they are not considering signing Vettel to form the ultimate F1 lineup with a total of 10 titles.

Ocon, while no longer affiliated with Mercedes directly, is still managed by Wolff, so could be called upon for a Mercedes drive. However it is most likely that Russell, currently at Williams, will get the promotion he has been working for. The young Brit has been dominating the Virtual Grand Prix series and if he can transfer that pace into real life that could well seal the deal for Mercedes.

My Mercedes 2021 prediction:

Lewis Hamilton
George Russell

Scuderia Ferrari Mission Winnow

2020 drivers:

Sebastian Vettel
Charles Leclerc

2021 confirmed drivers:

Charles Leclerc
Carlos Sainz Jr

Sainz celebrates post-race debut podium

Ferrari are one of only 3 teams to have confirmed their full lineup. When Vettel make the shock announcement that he and Ferrari will part ways after 2020, 2 names instantly came to the forefront for the drive – Sainz and Daniel Ricciardo. Australian Ricciardo did confirm he and Ferrari had held talks over a drive, but the Scuderia settled on the Spaniard Sainz Jr, son of rallying legend Carlos Sainz. Sainz had a breakthrough season with McLaren in 2019, scoring his debut podium and the team’s first podium since 2014 at the Brazilian Grand Prix.

Red Bull Racing – Honda

2020 drivers:

Max Verstappen
Alex Albon

2021 confirmed drivers:

Max Verstappen
n/a

Drivers in contention for a drive in 2021:

Alex Albon
Pierre Gasly
Daniil Kvyat

Albon passes Perez on the grass on Red Bull debut

Red Bull have Verstappen locked down in a long term contract, the only way he is going to be leaving the Austrian team is if his performance escape clause is activated. As for the 2nd seat, Red Bull will be looking for a number 2 driver – someone who can drive a car well that has been designed to suit Verstappen.

This is what Gasly failed to do in 2019, which caused him to be dropped midseason in place of Albon, so the chances of Gasly returning to the senior Red Bull team in 2021 is very slim, especially if Dr Helmut Marko has a say (which he will). Red Bull are unlikely to take a driver outside of their programme, meaning the only other driver they could call upon other than Albon is Gasly’s AlphaTauri teammate Kvyat.

Kvyat has a very checkered history in Red Bull – he was promoted after just 1 year in F1, scored a couple of podiums, then was demoted not once down to Toro Rosso in 2016, but dropped completely from the Red Bull programme in 2017, before being resigned to Toro Rosso for 2019. The only way either Kvyat or Gasly will race for Red Bull in 2021 is if Albon has a shocking season, which from his performances with Red Bull in 2019 is unlikely to happen.

My Red Bull 2021 predictions:

Max Verstappen
Alex Albon

McLaren-Mercedes F1 Team – Mercedes

2020 drivers:

Carlos Sainz Jr
Lando Norris

2021 confirmed drivers:

Daniel Ricciardo
Lando Norris

Norris and Ricciardo joking around in press conferences

The McLaren-Mercedes name returns to F1 in 2021 for the first time since 2014. The team was caught up in the Ferrari waves caused by Vettel’s announcement, with the Scuderia poaching Sainz. This gave McLaren the opportunity to reopen conversations with Ricciardo, who nearly signed for the team in 2019. Ricciardo quickly put pencil to paper, and at the same time so did Norris to form what is set to be the funniest partnership in F1 history.

Renault DP World F1 Team

2020 drivers:

Daniel Ricciardo
Esteban Ocon

2021 confirmed drivers:

Esteban Ocon
n/a

Drivers in contention for a drive in 2021:

Sebastian Vettel
Fernando Alonso
Valtteri Bottas
Nico Hulkenberg
Guanyu Zhou
Christian Lundgaard

Alonso wins the 2005 F1 title

Now this is where it gets interesting. The second Renault seat is easily the most hotly contested seat on the grid at the moment. With Ricciardo moving to McLaren, it leaves a seat alongside young Frenchman Ocon, and there are so many drivers with connections to the drive. If Vettel is to remain in F1 in 2021, his only realistic option is Renault. It is a team who have ambitions to return to the forefront of F1 as soon as possible, and are known for signing big name drivers to help that process, namely Ricciardo in 2019. However, as of yet, this plan is yet to show any sign of progress, with Renault still firmly in the midfield and now behind McLaren. Does Vettel, a serial winner and 4 time champion, really want to race for a midfield team?

The same question can be aimed at both Alonso and Bottas, but the answers could vary for both. Bottas has had his opportunity at F1’s top team for the past 4 years including 2020, and is yet to mount a serious title challenge. However, he is a race winner, which is something Renault will want, and he comes with knowledge of how the best F1 team functions, which could prove gold for Renault.

Alonso has a very famous history with Renault, winning his 2 world titles in 2005 and 2006 with them. He hasn’t driven for the team since 2009 however, and Alonso is famous for his disruptive personality in a team, which is the last thing Renault will want while trying to rebuild themselves.

Hulkenberg was dropped in favour of Ocon for 2020, so its possible any relationship with Renault has been fractured, but he is a driver who knows the team and the team knows him, and that familiarity could be attractive for Renault.

Renault however have stated the would very much like to promote one of their junior drivers to F1. They have 2 drivers in Formula 2 as it stands, Zhou and Lundgaard. Out of the 2, Zhou is the one who would be likely to get the call up – rookie of the year in 2019 and one of the title favourites for 2020, whereas 18 year old Lundgaard is a rookie in F2 this year.

As it stands, it’s impossible to know who will lineup alongside Ocon. Superlicence points will play a factor if neither of their junior drivers have enough to race in F1, and because of that it will be well into the season before any announcement is made.

My Renault 2021 predictions:

Esteban Ocon
Valtteri Bottas

Aston Martin F1 Team – Mercedes

2020 drivers:

Sergio Perez
Lance Stroll

2021 confirmed drivers:

Sergio Perez
Lance Stroll

Racing Point will turn into an Aston Martin works team in 2021 thanks to Lawrence Stroll saving the British manufacturer. Sergio Perez is locked down until 2022, which would see him race a whopping 9 years at the same team, and will have seen 3 name changes (Force India -> Racing Point -> Aston Martin). There were talks of Vettel signing for Aston Martin, however Perez is unlikely to budge and Stroll is unlikely to move teams while his father is at the team.

Scuderia AlphaTauri – Honda

2020 drivers:

Pierre Gasly
Daniil Kvyat

2021 confirmed drivers:

Drivers in contention for a drive in 2021:

Pierre Gasly
Daniil Kvyat
Alex Albon
Jehan Daruvala
Yuki Tsunoda
Juri Vips

Gasly wins maiden F1 podium at Brazil 2019

AlphaTauri’s 2021 lineup will depend on several factors – the performance of Gasly and Kvyat in F1, and the performance of Daruvala and Tsunoda in F2. Carlin in F2 are effectively acting as a Red Bull Formula 2 team, with Daruvala and Tsunoda being Red Bull’s top junior drivers both racing for Carlin.

What is likely to happen is very simple – whoever performs the best out of Gasly and Kvyat will stay at AlphaTauri, and whoever performs the best out of Daruvala and Tsunoda will get an F1 promotion, however Superlicence points could be an issue for the F2 drivers. Tsunoda is a Honda junior driver as well as a Red Bull one, so may have an advantage over Daruvala in that regard, but Daruvala finished 3rd in F3 in 2019, 1 point behind Marcus Armstrong in P2, whereas Tsunoda finished 9th.

It is possible either Gasly or Kvyat could leave AlphaTauri voluntarily, if so either both Carlin drivers could get promoted, or Red Bull could turn to Vips in SuperFormula. Vips has been looked over by Red Bull after a difficult SuperFormula debut, but shone in F3 in 2019, best of the rest behind the Prema drivers.

My AlphaTauri 2021 predictions:

Pierre Gasly
Jehan Daruvala

Alfa Romeo Racing ORLEN - Ferrari

2020 drivers:

Kimi Raikkonen
Antonio Giovinazzi

2021 confirmed drivers:

Drivers in contention for a drive in 2021:

Kimi Raikkonen
Antonio Giovinazzi
Mick Schumacher
Robert Schwartzman
Callum Ilott

Mick Schumacher takes maiden F2 win

Alfa Romeo’s 2021 lineup could be drastically different. Will Raikkonen decide to stay on for another year, or at 41 years old by 2021 will he call it quits on his ‘hobby’? Who will come out on top between him and Giovinazzi? If Giovinazzi beats Raikkonen consistently in 2020, he will likely be retained, but if not it is very likely he will be dropped, having yet to show consistent potential in his short F1 career so far.

Turning to F2, Ferrari have a massive junior programme at the moment, and will use Alfa Romeo to place drivers into F1 before a Ferrari promotion. Schumacher has the name of his father Michael, and would be a huge strategic choice to sign him to Alfa Romeo to get the eyes of the world on him, Alfa, Ferrari and F1. Schwartzman comes into F2 as a rookie, but after dominating the 2019 F3 championship. Teammates at Prema for 2020, Schumacher and Schwartzman are favourites to battle it out for the 2020 F2 title.

Ilott is an outside chance for the Alfa drive. He will race for front runners UNI-Virtuosi in 2020 in his 2nd F2 season, so could end up beating both Prema drivers. However what is likely is Raikkonen will beat Giovinazzi, Giovinazzi gets dropped and Ferrari see a golden opportunity for a Raikkonen-Schumacher lineup at Alfa Romeo, where F1’s most experienced driver can spend his final F1 years mentoring Schumacher, the son of the driver who Raikkonen replaced at Ferrari in 2007.

My Alfa Romeo 2021 predictions:

Kimi Raikkonen
Mick Schumacher

Haas F1 Team - Ferrari

2020 drivers:

Kevin Magnussen
Romain Grosjean

2021 confirmed drivers:

Drivers in contention for a drive in 2021:

Kevin Magnussen
Romain Grosjean
Louis Deletraz
Pietro Fittipaldi

Fittipaldi and Deletraz announced as Haas reserve drivers in 2020

One of the big mysteries of modern-day Formula 1 is how Haas boss Gunther Steiner hasn’t fired either Magnussen or Grosjean in the past 3 years. These 2 drivers have had many coming togethers in the past few years, which have been well documented on NETFLIX’s Drive to Survive series. 2020 will be their 4th year as teammates, and surely this has got to be their last. Grosjean has been with the team since its inception in 2016, however if 2020 goes how the past few years have gone for him, Grosjean surely will be out of the team. Magnussen feels much more secure, having beaten Grosjean for the past 2 years comfortably.

As for replacements, despite buying a lot of parts from Ferrari, Haas traditionally do not fun Ferrari drivers. Instead they have their own junior drivers in the form of 2020 F2 title favourite Louis Deletraz and Pietro Fittipaldi, grandson of 2 time F1 champion Emerson. Out of the 2, Deletraz would be most likely to get the call up, with Fittipaldi not racing in F2 or SuperFormula in 2020.

My Haas 2021 predictions:

Kevin Magnussen
Louis Deletraz

Williams Racing - Mercedes

2020 drivers:

George Russell
Nicholas Latifi

2021 confirmed drivers:

George Russell
n/a

Drivers in contention for a drive in 2021:

Nicholas Latifi
Jamie Chadwick
Dan Ticktum
Jack Aitken
Roy Nissany
Nico Hulkenberg
Valtteri Bottas

Latifi at F1 2020 pre-season testing

Williams’ future is very much up in the air, with the termination of the ROKiT sponsorship and the team going up for sale, anything could happen in 2021. Technically, Russell is signed for 2021 but Mercedes have the power to promote him to Mercedes as a Mercedes contracted driver if necessary. If that happens, that leaves 2 seats open at a team that could be looking for drivers with money.

One major option is that Latifi’s father Michael could buy out, either partially or fully, the Williams team. Whether the Williams name remains in F1 remains to be seen, however if this happens, Latifi will most certainly remain at the team in 2021. If this puts Williams into a more financially stable place, then they could seek a higher regarded driver. Bottas could come in as a straight swap with Russell, and Hulkenberg could find his F1 comeback at the team, but it is more likely, as per previous years, that Williams will turn to a driver with money.

Chadwick, Ticktum, Aitken and Nissany are all Williams Young Drivers, with all but Chadwick in F2. Chadwick could bring sponsorship if Williams get attention for bringing the first female F1 driver to start a Grand Prix since Lella Lombardi for Williams in 1976. Nissany would bring the most money, but is likely to be beaten by both Aitken and Ticktum in F2 2020. Out of the 2 Brits, whoever comes out on top in 2020 will probably get the drive, unless either driver’s sponsors say otherwise.

My Williams 2021 predictions:

Nicholas Latifi
Dan Ticktum

In conclusion, 2021 could see a lot of changes to the driver lineup in F1, with a mixture of returning drivers, seasoned veterans and young rookies potentially all lining up on the grid come Australia 2021, and big name drivers not making the cut.

Final predictions:

Mercedes:

Lewis Hamilton
George Russell

Ferrari:

Charles Leclerc
Carlos Sainz Jr

Red Bull:

Max Verstappen
Alex Albon

McLaren-Mercedes:

Daniel Ricciardo
Lando Norris

Renault:

Esteban Ocon
Valtteri Bottas

Aston Martin:

Sergio Perez
Lance Stroll

AlphaTauri:

Pierre Gasly
Jehan Daruvala [rookie]

Alfa Romeo:

Kimi Raikkonen
Mick Schumacher [rookie]

Haas:

Kevin Magnussen
Louis Deletraz [rookie]

Williams:

Nicholas Latifi
Dan Ticktum [rookie]